Overconfidence
Got this from a PDF download. Speaks a lot about us
Enna kodumai….
- 19% of people think they belong to the richest 1% of U.S. households
- 82% of people say they are in the top 30% of safe drivers
- 80% of students think they will finish in the top half of their class
- When asked to make a prediction at the 98% confidence level, people are right only 60-70% of the time
- 68% of lawyers in civil cases believe that their side will prevail
- Doctors consistently overestimate their ability to detect certain diseases
- 81% of new business owners think their business has at least a 70% chance of success, but only 39% think any business like theirs would belikely to succeed
- Graduate students were asked to estimate the time it would take them to finish their thesis under three scenarios: best case, expected, and worst case. The average guesses were 27.4 days, 33.9 days, and 48.6 days, respectively. The actual average turned out to be 55.5 days.
- Mutual fund managers, analysts, and business executives at a conference were asked to write down how much money they would have at retirement and how much the average person in the room would have. The average figures were $5 million and $2.6 million, respectively. The professor who asked the question said that, regardless of the audience, the ratio is always approximately 2:1
- 86% of my Harvard Business School classmates say they are better looking than their classmates